More information / Press / Speaker interviews / Interview with Christian Roeloffs: Managing Director at Container xChange

Q: How should container owners assess their leasing models to compete with SOCs? [Note: I assume that it is meant to be “compete with COCs”]

A: Treat this as a “total cost of equipment” problem vs. COC: quantify lane-level savings from avoiding D&D risk, rollovers and imbalanced depot returns, and price leases dynamically against spot freight and risk (counterparty, repositioning, lane volatility). Offer flexible structures (short-term, one-way, hub-and-spoke pools, inland return guarantees), plus value-adds like bundled repair and insurance that forwarders can white-label. Explicitly model D&D exposure under the FMC’s 2024 billing rule (transparency improved but costs still material on congested lanes) so the SOC business case is provable in dollars per TEU. Use portfolio analytics to reallocate boxes quickly as geopolitics and tariffs shift demand.

Q: Most promising trade routes or markets in today’s geopolitical climate

A: Expect continued fragmentation away from “CN→US only” toward SEA and India plays: Vietnam/Malaysia/Indonesia kept gaining share into the U.S. through 2024, while India is positioned to absorb some diversion as tariff regimes evolve. Nearshoring keeps North America hot—Mexico-U.S. integration is structurally sticky! Balance this with niches on ME–ISC and intra-Asia where capacity is redeployed by carriers skirting the Red Sea. Owners can/should build a watchlist by lane with tariff sensitivity and “Cape-routing dependency” so they can pivot capacity quickly.

Q: Preparing for forecasted structural overcapacity

A: Base case: supply growth stays ahead of demand as the record orderbook is delivered; if Red Sea rerouting normalizes, latent capacity returns and rate support fades. Owners should (a) trim the tail—sell or refurbish older units opportunistically while secondary prices are still decent—(b) tighten inventory risk with shorter tenors and more one-ways on exposed lanes, and (c) keep cash liquidity buffers to ride rate down-cycles. Expect more credit/bankruptcy events: upgrade your credit screens and collateral policies.

Q: Defining trend for the next few years

A: A three-handed story: (1) capacity overhang vs. uneven demand, (2) regulatory cost creep from decarbonization, (3) geopolitics as a persistent volatility tax. Red Sea/Cape detours have absorbed capacity so far—if tensions ease, that absorption vanishes, swinging rates. Net-net: data-driven agility (pricing, redeployments) will matter more than sheer scale and a resulting unit-cost advantage.

Q: What I’ll discuss at Intermodal Europe

A: I’ll map scenarios for 2025–2028 using consensus macro baselines and risks and discuss how different scenarios will impact the market in different. Then I’ll share a practical playbook for owners: flexible lease architectures, target-lane picks (SEA/India niches, U.S. inland), inventory risk controls, and counterparty hygiene for a higher-default environment.